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Finding Lift-Off
Stocks
By: Scott G. Henderson, BSEE, MBA
Wouldn't it be
great if we had a magic crystal ball that would tell us just what
was going to happen to the price of a stock over the next two
years. Well we don't have a crystal ball that will predict the future all though we
do have the opposite, the past "HISTORY". Due to the powers of
the internet you and I have the ability to download for free years of financial
history on any company that is traded publicly. Although this is the opposite
of the future if approached correctly utilizing the principles of investment
strategies it can be used to our advantage to predict the
future.
The term
"Lift-Off Stock" is a
term that I use to describe a stock that is ready to take off in price
and continue to do so over the next year or two. What is ironic about the term
is the fact that while lift-off stocks do exist how do we identify them
at the beginning of their price increase? Well I bet I know what
you are thinking. Now that you have this huge power of
access to financial company data you can down load all the historical financial
data for hundreds of companies that are all traded publicly. Then you
would use the theories of stock portfolio management to identify all the companies that
have had lift-off to the price of their stock. Once you have
completed this you would find what they all had in common with their
financial data just before and prior to lift-off. I bet you are now
thinking "FANTASTIC" well make sure that you call me as soon as
you finish compiling all your data. Now that's just the problem
with this plan. The amount of time, man-power, money and resources
you or I would need to accomplish this is simply way beyond my means.
There is an
individual though who I assume had the same idea, Investors
Business Daily publisher "William J. O'Neil". And there is one
huge difference between Mr. O'Neil and myself, and that is that he did
have the time, man-power, money and resources at his disposal to
accomplish this because that is exactly what he did. Mr. O'Neil & Co.
had been analyzing stock since the 1950s with the use of computers. Due to
this he had compiled a huge amount of fundament and financial data on
thousands of stocks. Mr. O'Neil took the data of these stocks from the
years 1953 through 1993 and identified 500 stocks that had the highest
gains during this 40 year period. He then analyzed the data to identify
what all these stocks had in common before they started, what I previously
defined as "Lift-Off".
Now I will get back to Mr. O'Neil's findings later
in this article but first I what to point out the importance the principles of investment strategies carry with
regards to stock portfolio management. When we purchase stock we are purchasing a percentage of
ownership in that entity. Just as a mortgage company will check our
credit before lending us the money for that purchase, we should also
check the credit of a company that is a candidate for future investment prior
to investing. And just as a credit company has set up guidelines that
determine whether or not they will lend you money so should you set
up guidelines that any entity must meet before you will invest in them. If
you do this with a quality amount of research and thought based on your personal
financial situation you will greatly improve your return while reducing your risk
for that ultimate goal of optimum return vs. risk formulation. Now
there are several very good stock portfolio management strategies that have been developed
and you should by all means know them fundamentally, Mr. O'Neil has developed
one of them that we are going to cover. What you must do
is identify which principles of investment strategies will best fit your personal financial goals
and status with as little tweaking as possible. It is ok
to adjust our chosen stock portfolio management strategy to fit our personal situation as
long as we monitor them and make adjustments for those tweaks that are not
effective. This process of adjustments is covered in my Successful Online
Portfolio Management e-course in which the simple process of setting up
and analyzing your investments with Excel spreadsheets is explained.
Now back to Mr. O'Neil and his findings.
O'Neil identified seven characteristics that were all found in the top
stock performers and then combined them all into a strategy he call
"CANSLIM". He first introduced CANSLIM in his best-selling book, "How to
Make Money in Stocks", I believe now to be in its 3rd edition. The
foundation of CANSLIM is based on a momentum investment strategy. A
momentum strategy is one that consists of fast earnings growth with a
strong price chart. But O'Neil also included several requirements that are
not associated with a momentum strategy. The seven financial requirements
for the CANSLIM investment screening strategy are as
follows:
C -
(Current Quarterly Earnings) Current quarterly earnings compared to the
same quarter of the previous year must have a growth of 18% or more.
A - (Annual Earnings Growth) A stock must have an annual
earnings growth of 25% or more over the previous year.
N - (New
High Price/Share) The stock selling price must be at or close to a new
share price high.
S - (Supply VS. Demand) Shares of stock
outstanding must be no more than 25 million.
L -Â (Leader in
Industry) 12 - Month Relative Strength must be 80 or
higher.
I - (Institutional Ownership) Institutional Ownership is
the percentage of shares of stock outstanding owned by institutions i.e.
mutual funds, pension plans, insurance companies, etc. O'Neil wanted
percentage of shares outstanding held by institutions to be low, although
he does not give a parameter for this I would suggest anywhere from 5%
to 35%.
M - (Market Direction) O'Neil advises against using the
CANSLIM strategy in a weak market because momentum stocks go down when
the market drops. There are several theories on what determines a weak
market for momentum stocks and you should come to your own conclusion.
One that I particularly like is using the Russell 2000 Index 200 day
average as a benchmark. If the Russell 2000 is trading below its 200 day
average then it is considered a weak market if above it is a strong
market.
This is a stock
portfolio management screening strategy
that I like, with a few alteration, to use when
looking for lift-off stocks. If you would like to
know more about the CANSLIM principles of investment strategies read the book "How to
Make Money in Stocks" by William J. O'Neil in which these strategies are covered
in much more detail.
One thing that I would like to point out
is this, while the CANSLIM strategy is a
very legitimate strategy worth your time to look at, there are several other very
legitimate strategies also and you should develop a basic understanding of them as
well to ensure that you develop a strategy that is based on your
personal financial situation. Remember we should have a portfolio of diversification which
not only includes different entities classifications but also different risk structures based
on what our individual goals are and how our personal financial structure is
composed. You can learn more about this in the Successful Online Portfolio Management
training course.
If you found this article to be informative and would like to receive
similar articles and information just click on the "Free Investment Tools" link below. For more information on the
Successful Online Portfolio Management educational course just click on
the "Portfolio Management"link
below.
Portfolio Management
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